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ANNEX B - The Military Balance in the Gulf

Total Gulf Military Forces

Trends in the Gulf military balance - overview
Sources of instability in the Gulf
Qualitative weaknesses in Gulf military forces
The potential qualitative advantages of the 'Revolution in military affairs'
The potential weaknesses in western power projection forces
General conclusions
Gulf military demographics and forces in 2000
Gulf military forces in 2000 - part one
Gulf military forces in 2000 - part two
Major measures of combat equipment strength - 2000

Gulf Military Expenditures

Gulf military expenditure 1997-2000
Comparative military expenditures of the Gulf powers - 1983-1995
Comparative military expenditures of the high expenditure Gulf powers: 1983-1995
Comparative military expenditures of the smaller Gulf powers: 1983-1995

Gulf Arms Transfer

Gulf arms buys by supplier: 1987-1998
Total Gulf new arms agreements and deliveries 1995-1998
Major supplier share of total Gulf arms agreements and deliveries: 1987-1998
Arms agreements and deliveries in the larger Gulf states vs. the rest of the GCC: 1987-1998
Cumulative arms imports of the Gulf States - 1984-1996
Comparative arms imports of the Gulf States - 1986-1996

GULF MILITARY MANPOWER AND DEMOGRAPHICS

Gulf military demographics in 2000
Comparative trends in Gulf total active
Military manpower: 1979-2000
Total Gulf active military manpower: 1989-2000
Total active military manpower in all Gulf forces 1990-2000
Total active military manpower in all Gulf forces - 2000
Total Gulf military manpower by service - 2000

Gulf Land Forces

Total active military manpower in Gulf armies in 2000
Total Gulf operational armoured fighting vehicles - 2000
Trends in total Gulf main battle tank inventory: 1979-2000
Total operational main battle tanks in all Gulf forces 1979 to 2000
Total operational tanks in all Gulf forces 1990-2000
Total Gulf Operational Armoured Fighting Vehicles -2000
Medium to high quality main battle tanks by type in 2000
Holdings of low quality main battle tanks by type in 2000
Total operational other armoured vehicles (lt. tanks, scout, AIFVs, APCs, recce) in Gulf forces 1990-2000
Gulf other armoured fighting vehicles (OAFVs) by category - 2000
Advanced armoured infantry fighting vehicles, reconnaissance vehicles, scout vehicles and light tanks by type in 2000
Armoured personnel carriers (APCs) in Gulf armies - 2000
Total operational self-propelled and towed tube artillery and multiple rocket launchers in Gulf forces 1990-2000
Total operational Gulf artillery weapons - 2000
Gulf inventory of self-propelled artillery by calibre in 2000
Gulf inventory of towed artillery by calibre in 2000
Gulf inventory of multiple rocket launchers by calibre in 2000

GULF AIR FORCES

Total Gulf air force and air defence manpower - 2000
Total operational combat aircraft in all Gulf forces 1990-2000
Total Gulf holdings of combat aircraft - 2000
Gulf high and medium quality fixed wing fighter, fighter attack, attack, strike, and multi-role combat aircraft by type - 2000
Advanced combat aircraft by type in Gulf forces in 2000
Gulf low quality fixed wing fighter, fighter attack, attack, strike, and multi-role combat aircraft by type - 2000
Gulf reconnaissance aircraft in 2000
Sensor, awacs, c4i, ew and elint aircraft in 2000
Gulf attack helicopters in 2000
Gulf land-based air defence systems in 2000

GULF NAVAL FORCES

Total Gulf naval manpower in 2000
Gulf naval ships by category in 2000
Gulf warships with anti-ship missiles in 2000
Gulf mine warfare ships in 2000
Gulf amphibious warfare ships in 2000
Gulf naval aircraft and helicopters aircraft in 2000

SELECTED FORCE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF

Iran - overview
Value of Iranian arms deliveries
Iranian dependence on decaying western supplied major weapons - Part one
Iranian dependence on decaying western supplied major weapons - Part two
Can Iran mass produce major new weapons systems - Part one
Can Iran mass produce major new weapons systems - Part two
Iraq - overview
Iraqi dependence on decaying, obsolete, or obsolescent major weapons
The Iraqi cumulative arms import deficit enforced by UN sanctions
The problem of Iraqi military production
Major Iraqi military production facilities

THE IMPACT OF FORCE DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTHERN GULF

The southern Gulf military balance
Key missions, and potential liabilities - the Gulf
Economics and the southern Gulf
Looking at requirement
Qualitative weaknesses in many Middle Eastern military forces
Potential qualitative advantages that can come with western arms
Key mission-related force improvement priorities
Key procurement priorities
Key procurement non-priorities
The real world barriers to effective southern Gulf forces
The customer is always wrong?
The 'royal mess': why many Gulf arms buys fail
The problem for (and within) seller governments
The problem for (and within) defence industry

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